By “doing nothing,” I mean holding an asset and doing nothing else. For retail investors, this might actually be the best strategy. For those with no investment experience, the S&P 500 is a reasonable choice. For those with intermediate experience, my journey in crypto has taught me this: holding an asset you believe in for the long term—without doing anything else—can yield the best returns. But it’s incredibly difficult.

HODLing Is Easy in Hindsight

Looking back, everyone would be wealthy had they held Bitcoin for the past 10 years. Yet very few did. Most people panic-sell during crashes, lose money, and never return due to the trauma. These are often followers who didn’t truly understand BTC. Even I haven’t successfully applied a pure HODL strategy. I operate on a Bitcoin Standard—using BTC as my base unit of value—while treating USD and altcoins as investment opportunities. I employ a trader and mostly follow a macro strategy. I don’t trade daily, but I do adjust when the macro outlook worsens. Over the years, I’ve lost about 50% of my BTC holdings in pursuit of tactical moves. So why not just hold?

a. Temperament

I suspect temperament plays a big role. I’ve never tried pure HODLing, partly because the thought of watching my net worth drop 70% is terrifying. If I ever did try it, I might find it bearable. But the key is: if you choose to HODL, you must commit entirely. Partial HODLing often leads to panic-selling at the bottom. I haven’t had the courage to fully commit. Some succeed because crypto is only a small portion of their net worth—they don’t mind losing it. For me, at one point, crypto was 90%+ of my assets. That’s a different level of pressure. Ironically, I think I’d have no trouble holding Berkshire Hathaway stock through a 50% drawdown.

b. Uncertainty

Even with strong conviction, the uncertainty around timing is hard to stomach. In 2022–2023, with FTX collapsing and then Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the macro environment was bleak. Meanwhile, BTC surged from $20,000 to $28,000 after SVB went bankrupt. I lost a lot of BTC in that period. A friend of mine had gone 100% USD during that phase and never re-entered. I was 50% allocated, but even that meant I lost BTC in relative terms. Also, back then, there was no BTC ETF. Could we have predicted one would be approved the following year? Maybe insiders could. But if markets are efficient, shouldn’t that have been priced in?

c. Overthinking

This one ties to my personality. I’m cautious—sometimes excessively so. I’m not a full-on Bitcoin maximalist. I worry: what if the U.S. bans mining? What if quantum computing evolves faster than expected and BTC doesn’t adopt post-quantum algorithms in time? These edge cases haunt me. Buffett once said that if nuclear war occurred, Berkshire would be the last thing he’d worry about. That perspective makes sense. Overthinking kills opportunity.

What I’ve Learned

I think temperament and overthinking are individual traits—hard to change. I may try meditation to cultivate awareness, but they’ve arguably helped me manage risk. Without these traits, I might’ve chased yield and deposited everything into FTX, only to be wiped out. But the real insight, for me, is to focus on reducing uncertainty.

Reducing Uncertainty

How do we reduce uncertainty? More knowledge and skills? Not necessarily. If all your information is public, and you’re not a genius like Jim Simons, your edge is minimal. I mentioned insider knowledge. In traditional equities, insider trading is illegal because it’s unfair. But just look at the Crypto Trump Family or Congressional Stock Goddess Pelosi—information advantage matters. Ironically, betting on weak insider info can be harmful unless you’re at the very top. Recently, I invested in a crypto VC fund. I realized the unique edge they have isn’t necessarily private data, but the ability to talk directly with founders and teams. Even if all other data is public, that interaction creates personalized insights. Buffett and Munger, too, have this advantage—they often speak directly with the management of companies they’re interested in. In many cases, business owners looking to sell even reach out to Buffett proactively. This level of access is itself a moat that Berkshire Hathaway has built over decades.

Building Conviction

For Buffett, his foundation seems to be American exceptionalism. If you read all of his shareholder letters, you might ask: how does this guy consistently beat the market? Modern portfolio theory can’t explain it. His belief—“never bet against America”—could be a key part of his edge. In 2008, during the financial crisis, he wrote in the New York Times: “Buy American. I am.” The market feared a new Great Depression, but Buffett’s conviction proved right. A historic bull run followed.

Final Thought

I still seek ways to reduce uncertainty. If you’ve found some, I’d love to hear them.